ONFEBRUARY24, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin began a vicious military campaign, invading a neighbouring country, Ukraine. Ignoring sovereignty, territorial integrity, and humanity, he did so on the basis that it is “the same historical and spiritual space” as Russia, and, as he said, because he was seeking to “demilitarise and de-nazify” and “free” its people. In invading Ukraine, he alone has drawn a line in history that no one can ignore. Despite the dignified resistance of the Ukrainian people and its small army, the war that Russia and Belarus are now waging will eventually subside, leaving Ukraine’s cities and people shattered, many dead and injured, and a million or more living as refugees in other nations. The country will eventually, likely be occupied under Ukraine’s flag, then divided under some sort of Russian imposed ‘imperial’ fiat. If this happens, an externally supported resistance may emerge alongside long-lasting Western sanctions, the intention being to wear down the Russian people’s patience with their autocratic neotsarist leader. For the Caribbean, for those who guide its future, and those internationally who care about the region’s independence of action and freedom of thought, this should be a moment to reflect on where events taking place many thousands of miles away may lead. Wars are irreversible inflection points in history, requiring not just an immediate response but real thought about the long-term implications. At a human level, events in the eastern part of Europe highlight the importance of the Caribbean’s often taken-for-granted freedoms, values, and compassion. They also beg questions about the far-reaching economic and political impact that a world divided will have on small nations that consistently have found themselves caught in the stream of global history. This war could not have happened at a worse time for an already heavily indebted region, slowly recovering from the pandemic, trying to establish viable pathways to recovery. To succeed, the vast range of international sanctions that have been introduced to punish Russia, isolate President Putin and by extension create social instability there, will have to remain in place for many years to come. They will impact globally, raising energy and commodity prices, causing inflation, restricting food supplies, disrupting previously efficient logistics and transport systems, altering tourism flows, and raising questions about the future of offshore financial and other services. Irrespective of their intended purpose, the sanctions imposed will have the effect of deglobalising the economic networks that, over the last three decades, have integrated supply chains, enabling rapid increases in efficiency, productivity, and economic growth. Such decoupling will require Caribbean nations and businesses to review in-depth how they relate to the wider world and where their future emphasis should lie. Although the shock of events taking place in Ukraine is acute, some of the implications for the Caribbean can be predicted. First, oil and gas prices will remain high at a time when the region has scarcely begun its energy transition. The only concessional supply to the region remains Venezuela’s PetroCaribe programme, possibly involving its much-discussed joint energy recovery project with Trinidad & Tobago. However, Venezuela’s close relationship with Russia, and the implied future dependency, will not play out well inWashington now or in the future. Second, Guyana, Suriname and French Guyana with their vast oil, gas, and mineral potential will become much sought-after strategic partners for the West. Similarly, the already material energy crisis will make viable some of the already scoped-out undersea oil and gas recovery projects off the Dominican Republic, Jamaica and The Bahamas, and between Barbados and Trinidad. Third, commodity and the prices of staples will challenge regional food security, as Russia, a major grain producer, is cut off from Western markets, global supply is constrained, and logistics become less certain. Caribbean prices will rise, highlighting past inaction on food security, demonstrating the urgent need, as Prime Minister Mottley recently stressed, to develop rapidly projects that place reliance on expanded food production in Guyana. Fourth, and depending on how they are exercised by the United States and European Union, sanctions could challenge the viability of the offshore financial and professional services offerings of countries from The Bahamas to the British Virgin Islands and Barbados. The region may also see questions asked and pressure grow on who exactly has been admitted to the Caribbean’s Citizenship by Investment programmes. Fifth, tourism flows from Russia will be subject to new airlift and foreign exchange constraints, THE SUNDAY GLEANER, MARCH 6, 2022 | BUSINESS C8 PLEASE SEE UKRAINE, C9 COLUMN: FOREIGN POLICY AP Gutted cars sit amid rubble following a night air raid in the village of Bushiv, 40 kilometres west of Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, March 4, 2022, the ninth day of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Russian forces shelled Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, sparking a fire there that was extinguished overnight. Invasion of Ukraine a global turning point
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