[OPINION & COMMENTARY] THE GLEANER, MONDAY, MARCH 7, 2022 | www.jamaica-gleaner.com A4 IT’S A bad thing when someone samfies you. It’s much worse when you do it to yourself. Agreed? That grounds my concern about these impressive finds of firearms and ammunition. This is great news. It removes weapons of death and terror from the society. But after the applause and backslapping, who is asking these questions? Where is the weaponry coming from? Why aren’t there charges laid? Why do so many announcements come before importers are brought to book? Moreso, what about convictions for gunrunning? Any? And what happens to the hardware seized? What assurances are there that some do not leak into criminal hands? How come, despite the impressive finds, firepower is still so plentiful?Wouldn’t the people’s confidence be improved if there were swift public destruction of all the contraband?Who could be against that? It isn’t enough just to find the guns and shots. If the consequential questions are not confronted, it is likely that more will come in and be used murderously. We will be fooling ourselves to think that the problem is being solved. PETROLEUM PROBLEM Then take the immanent petroleum problem. The minister assures us that the supply won’t be short. Thanks for that. But isn’t the crucial issue the likelihood of having the oil but being unable to afford gas at the pump, not to mention the light bill and everything else? Other governments are giving their citizens a prognosis on prices going forward. Why not here? How does anyone plan their business without such an estimate, however tentative? And what will the Government do about the heavy taxes on the fuel? Nothing? If the Budget is really premised on oil price south of US$75 per barrel, how will the nation cope with crude averaging north of US$110 last Friday? One, the minister reassures us that the spike will be temporary, same time as the other minister is so sure that tourismwill soon bubble as never before. Really? When last did we ever see fuel prices go down sustainably? That takes us to the issue of the exchange rate.What are the factors affecting the ‘dip and fall back’ downwards of the dollar? Surely, the Bank of Jamaica and the other rulers of the nation in the financial sector are estimating supply and demand for the rest of the year. Absence of projections makes nervous speculators of us all. So merchants hedge and price their goods and services for replacement at $160-$165 to US$1. After all, their survival depends on not being victims of the self-samfi. The ‘guineagogs’ prosper, but the rest of us have little choices. And as a sidebar. We wring our hands and shed tears about desperately high road fatalities but refuse to admit that there are increasing numbers of unqualified and incompetent vehicle operators who are laughing at our collective self-deception that a new law is going to cure that. Self-samfi, again. Perhaps the most distressful undercounting last week was the assertion by Education Minister Fayval Williams that about 10,000 students have had no schooling for the past two years. Where is the survey which could validate that figure? Respectfully, minister, please review your estimate. Underestimating a serious problem is a version of samfi. Count the plenty pickney on the street using school hours. Check every honest school leader and they will tell you that the real numbers are multiples of 10,000, everybody drop back. Two billion, not 200 million extra dollars are needed in this year’s Budget to begin to remediate the rot. Why fool ourselves? Go further. Check CAPRI’s report, the 2021 World Bank study, and the Patterson Report to validate the extent of the actual, as well as the effectual dropout problem pre-COVID-19,and, now worse, post-COVID-19. SCHOOL NO MEK NO SENSE Dangerous numbers of our youth are still saying, “School no mek no sense”. Let Pearnel Snr tell you of the school he knows where the children who could read in 2020, can’t manage a sentence now. The reality is that we avoid asking hard questions and demanding honest answers, because doing so may reflect poorly on those who exercise power and responsibility. Ministers must be made to look good in their often unremarkable moments on stage. Instead of the usual puffery, which most of us don’t check for anyway, why not Budget and Sectoral debates this year, brief in presentation, long on truth, short on self-samfi and mutual cussing, and strong on a unified approach to some of the most dreaded problems which a disappointed and increasingly desperate citizenry face daily? Please indulge a postscript. Does Jamaica adhere to foreign policy based on principle or expediency? The nation of Ukraine, generous to many of our students, humans like ourselves, is being destroyed by a modern-day Stalin. Most of us are appalled at the gratuitous cruelty. So are we going to permit one of Putin’s cumbolos to continue to operate here without sanctions? If Moscow can continue to prosper in its killing and skirting nuclear holocaust by selling oil and reaping bauxite while we do nothing, won’t the result be that we are complicit in the carnage and world peril. And then when some big power – military, political or financial – decides to ‘tek step’ with us, what moral precept will we invoke to seek help? Shouldn’t we stand for principle like we did in South Africa and Zimbabwe? Boycott Russian trade and suspend their investments until they cease fire and negotiate. “If you remove from your midst oppression, false accusation and malicious speech. If you bestow your bread on the hungry and satisfy the afflicted; then light shall rise for you in the darkness..The Lord will guide you always and give you plenty even on the parched land.” (Isaiah 58: 9 et seq) Rev Ronald G. Thwaites is an attorney-at-law. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com. So merchants hedge and price their goods and services for replacement at $160-$165 to US$1. After all, their survival depends on not being victims of the self-samfi. The ‘guineagogs’ prosper,but the rest of us have little choices. FILE THANKFULLY, WE are able to enjoy a limited and much-needed reduction in the suffering, deaths and austerities caused by the COVID19 pandemic. Already, the relaxation of precautionary measures has become evident. People are congregating in numbers at parties, events, restaurants and some places of entertainment without masking or distancing. In some instances, it appears as if the pandemic is a thing of the past. However, we need to keep in mind that pandemics come in waves, with peaks and troughs. Therefore, a reduction in infections does not mean that COVID-19 is over; it means that it is going through a cycle that is driven by human activity. We are hoping and earnestly praying that the peaks will be less fierce and the troughs will be much longer. Eventually, it is expected that COVID-19 will transition from a pandemic into an endemic – just like dengue and the‘common flu’. We have been living with those for a very long time. The SARS-CoV-2 virus is always trying to get inside our bodies, replicate itself (sometimes at our expense), perhaps mutate, andmove on to the next available body/host/factory. It doesn’t care if you become sick or die. That sounds horribly callous but, there are innumerable people who, as long as they don’t feel sick and are comfortable, don’t care if someone else becomes sick because of them or dies because of them. People protest, gripe and moan about COVID-19 measures. However, if the government did nothing to protect us, and citizens began dropping like flies, people would also protest, gripe and moan. It’s catch 22 for the authorities. Here’s the interesting part, if people were to wear masks properly when out and about, distance themselves from others, sanitise, vaccinate, and obey the [health] regulations when they enter the country, there would be no need for the government to institute antiCOVID-19 measures and laws to protect the vulnerable and preserve our greatest asset… our citizens. IN A FIGHT Living in COVID-19 times is like being in a fight. You should protect yourself at all times. You should always keep your guard up and pay attention. Although the numbers have fallen precipitously, we are not out of the woods by any means. COVID-19 is still here, and the numbers can rise again. Additionally, because the naysayers have allowed the virus to have its way, new strains may pop up anywhere and wreak havoc. However, it is not too late. We can still keep COVID-19 at bay if we manage our risks properly. We hear the words ‘chance’, ‘risk’ and ‘probability’ being bantered about, especially nowadays, because of the pandemic. These words convey the same meaning, but the nuance of each is different from the others. They are statistical terms transferred to everyday situations. The word ‘risk’ refers to a situation of being exposed to danger; it has a negative connotation. On the other hand, ‘chance’ and ‘probability’ denote the possibility of something, or anything, happening. These neutral words have dual functions and are sometimes used in positive situations, like “What is the chance/probability of winning the Lotto?” But they can also convey a negative meaning; as in, “What is the chance/probability getting COVID-19?” In general, therefore, they are used to speak to the possibility of positive or negative outcomes. Obviously, scientists and physicians consider a COVID-19 infection as a negative experience because of its association with terrible outcomes. We, therefore, tend to use the word‘risk’. This is a very important concept, and we use the appreciation of risk in every aspect of medical care for our patients. We are constantly balancing and comparing risks in the practice of medicine. The overarching principle is that there is always risk; there is no such thing as zero risk. For example, in dispensing an antibiotic, we must consider that there may be a risk of allergic reactions, side effects, damage to our (essential) gut biomes, drug tolerance, drug resistance, tachyphylaxis (needing more and more of a drug to get the desired effect), and drug-drug interactions. But, if a patient ‘must’ get antibiotic treatment, we weigh the risk of the possible negative outcome against the expected positive outcome. If the expected positive outcome exceeds the possible negative outcome, we prescribe the antibiotic. MANAGING RISK These principles have direct relevance when managing the COVID-19 pandemic. It is all about managing risk – personal and public risk. Since the SARS-CoV-2 virus is mostly airborne and transmitted by whatever we exhale through our mouths and nostrils, we need to first focus our risk management on this aspect of the disease. Masks are the first line of defence. Masks and physical distancing go hand in hand. Masking and hand sanitising only carry an infinitesimal risk of skin problems. But your risk of catching COVID-19 increases markedly when you are unmasked (or improperly masked) in public. Being unsanitised is also very risky. Distancing carries the risk of alienation, but clustering is a major risk factor for spreading the virus. Vaccinations carry a minimal risk of an unfavourable outcome, but being unvaccinated significantly increases your risk of a bad outcome during the COVID-19 pandemic, and increases the pressure on our healthcare system. If you want to continue enjoying the relaxation of the rules, if you want to get back to ‘normal’, you need to do your part in reducing the health risk for everybody. We can beat this thing together. Garth A. Rattray is a medical doctor with a family practice. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and garthrattray@gmail.com. Students walk to class amid the COVID-19 pandemic at Washington Elementary School on January 12 in Lynwood, California. AP Why are we ‘samfi-ing’ ourselves? Ronald Thwaites Garth Rattray How to get back to ‘normal’
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