Go-Jamaica Weather Watch

From the Met Service …

August 18, 2007 @ 11:00 p.m.

BULLETIN No. 12

*** HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT… FORECAST TRACK ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD***

The HURRICANE WARNING for Jamaica remains in effect as Hurricane Dean continues to approach Jamaica. This means that dangerous effects of a hurricane are expected to affect Jamaica in 24 hours or less.

At 10:00 p.m. the centre of Hurricane Dean was located near Latitude 16.2 degrees North, Longitude 71.7 degrees West. This is about 275 km (170 miles) south-southeast of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, or 530 km (330 miles) east-southeast of Morant Point, Jamaica.

Dean is moving towards the west-northwest near 28 km/h (17 mph) and a general west to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly to near 230 km/h (145 mph), with higher gusts, and fluctuations in strength are likely during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward approximately 95 km (60 miles), while tropical storm force winds extend 335 km (205 miles) from the centre.

The forecast track has been adjusted to move the centre of Hurricane Dean over the waters south of Haiti on Sunday morning and close to Jamaica’s southern coastline from Sunday afternoon and through the evening.

Outer bands of the hurricane could, however, start affecting the island early Sunday morning with periods of showers and gusty winds reaching near gale force. As Dean approaches the island, expect heavy rainfall to spread across the island with the potential for severe flash flooding and landslides. Storm surge flooding of 1.5-3 metres (7-9 feet) above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near the centre of Dean, especially over southern coastal areas.

All interests should continue to monitor subsequent Releases from the Meteorological Service. The next Bulletin on Hurricane Dean will be issued at 5:00 a.m.